Make the decision based on the complete system
The outdoor condenser is only one part of a central air-conditioning system. The indoor coil, blower, metering device, refrigerant piping, ductwork, controls and drainage all affect performance.
Do not assume the old tonnage is automatically correct. Changes to windows, insulation, additions or ductwork—and mistakes in the original design—can change what the home actually needs.
Compare complete matched systems and installation scope rather than shopping by outdoor-unit model or SEER2 number alone.